Category: News
Andrew Hay’s 2025 Cybersecurity Predictions
As we approach 2025, the ever-evolving landscape of cybersecurity continues to challenge professionals and organizations alike. Based on observed trends and emerging technologies, here are my predictions for the coming year.
AI-Powered Threats and Defenses
The ubiquity of artificial intelligence in cybersecurity is inevitable. In 2025, adversaries will use AI more effectively to bypass traditional defences. Expect sophisticated AI-based malware capable of learning and adapting in real-time. Conversely, defenders will increasingly rely on AI-driven solutions for threat detection, anomaly detection, and automated response systems. The race between offence and defence will be more about algorithmic sophistication than ever before.
Quantum Computing’s Shadow Looms
While practical quantum computers remain a few years away, 2025 will bring heightened anxiety about “quantum supremacy” breaking current encryption standards. Preparations for a post-quantum cryptography era will accelerate, with enterprises prioritizing migrating to quantum-resistant algorithms to safeguard sensitive data.
Ransomware Reaches New Heights
Ransomware operators will target critical infrastructure, healthcare, and small-to-medium businesses at an unprecedented scale. As payments via cryptocurrencies grow harder to track due to improved privacy tools, law enforcement agencies will face mounting challenges in pursuing perpetrators. Collaborative global efforts to dismantle ransomware syndicates and the complexity of attacks will increase.
Zero Trust Goes Mainstream
The mantra “trust no one, verify everything” will dominate organizational strategies in 2025. Zero-trust architecture will evolve beyond network security to encompass cloud workloads, supply chains, and even individual devices. Expect vendors to release more integrated solutions to streamline Zero-trust adoption, responding to a market hungry for robust, easy-to-deploy frameworks.
5G and IoT as Vulnerability Catalysts
The proliferation of 5G will dramatically increase the number of connected devices, leading to a new wave of vulnerabilities. In 2025, securing IoT ecosystems will be a top priority, as poorly designed IoT devices become an attractive attack vector for botnets and espionage campaigns. Regulatory bodies will push for stricter IoT security standards globally.
Human-Centric Cybersecurity
Recognizing that humans remain the weakest link in cybersecurity, 2025 will see renewed user education and awareness efforts. Organizations will invest in personalized training programs using gamification and AI-driven risk assessments to reinforce secure behaviours. At the same time, social engineering attacks will grow more nuanced, targeting emotional and psychological vulnerabilities.
Privacy Wars Intensify
With more countries introducing stringent data privacy regulations akin to GDPR, multinational organizations will grapple with compliance complexity. Emerging technologies such as privacy-preserving computation and decentralized identity systems will gain traction, promising to reconcile security and privacy in innovative ways.
Cybersecurity as a Boardroom Priority
In 2025, cybersecurity will no longer be just an IT issue; it will firmly hold its place in boardroom discussions. Expect increased budgets for cybersecurity initiatives, more frequent simulations of cyber incidents at the C-suite level, and greater accountability for breaches as boards recognize the direct impact on brand reputation and regulatory compliance.
Evolving Threat Landscapes
The motives behind cyber incidents will diversify further, from politically motivated cyberattacks to financially driven exploits. Nation-states will continue to leverage cyber tools for geopolitical influence, while hacktivists will focus on disrupting industries that fail to address pressing social issues like climate change and inequality.
Collaborative Security Ecosystems
Finally, 2025 will be the year of shared responsibility. Organizations will lean heavily on collective intelligence, shared threat databases, and industry-specific partnerships to bolster defences. Cybersecurity will become a cooperative endeavour, transcending organizational and national boundaries.
Closing Thoughts
2025 promises to be a year of transformation in cybersecurity, marked by rapid technological advancements and the growing sophistication of cyber threats. Staying ahead will require adaptability, collaboration, and an unyielding commitment to innovation. As always, the best defence is a well-informed community—stay vigilant and stay prepared.
I’d love to hear your thoughts and predictions—what challenges or innovations do you anticipate in 2025? Let’s discuss it!
Insurance Occurrence Assurance?
You may have seen my friend Brian Krebs’ post regarding the lawsuit filed last month in the Western District of Virginia after $2.4 million was stolen from The National Bank of Blacksburg from two separate breaches over an eight-month period. Though the breaches are concerning, the real story is that the financial institution suing its insurance provider for refusing to fully cover the losses.
From the article:
In its lawsuit (PDF), National Bank says it had an insurance policy with Everest National Insurance Company for two types of coverage or “riders” to protect it against cybercrime losses. The first was a “computer and electronic crime” (C&E) rider that had a single loss limit liability of $8 million, with a $125,000 deductible.
The second was a “debit card rider” which provided coverage for losses which result directly from the use of lost, stolen or altered debit cards or counterfeit cards. That policy has a single loss limit of liability of $50,000, with a $25,000 deductible and an aggregate limit of $250,000.
According to the lawsuit, in June 2018 Everest determined both the 2016 and 2017 breaches were covered exclusively by the debit card rider, and not the $8 million C&E rider. The insurance company said the bank could not recover lost funds under the C&E rider because of two “exclusions” in that rider which spell out circumstances under which the insurer will not provide reimbursement.
Cyber security insurance is still in its infancy and issues with claims that could potentially span multiple policies and riders will continue to happen – think of the stories of health insurance claims being denied for pre-existing conditions and other loopholes. This, unfortunately, is the nature of insurance. Legal precedent, litigation, and insurance claim issues aside, your organization needs to understand that cyber security insurance is but one tool to reduce the financial impact on your organization when faced with a breach.
Cyber security insurance cannot and should not, however, be viewed as your primary means of defending against an attack.
The best way to maintain a defensible security posture is to have an information security program that is current, robust, and measurable. An effective information security program will provide far more protection for the operational state of your organization than cyber security insurance alone. To put it another way, insurance is a reactive measure whereas an effective security program is a proactive measure.
If you were in a fight, would you want to wait and see what happens after a punch is thrown to the bridge of your nose? Perhaps you would like to train to dodge or block that punch instead? Something to think about.
Free SANS Webinar: I Before R Except After IOC
Join Andrew Hay on Wednesday, July 25th, 2018 at 10:30 AM EDT (14:30:00 UTC) for an exciting free SANS Institute Webinar entitled “I” Before “R” Except After IOC. Using actual investigations and research, this session will help attendees better understand the true value of an individual IOC, how to quantify and utilize your collected indicators, and what constitutes an actual incident.
Overview
Just because the security industry touts indicators of compromise (IOCs) as much needed intelligence in the war on attackers, the fact is that not every IOC is valuable enough to trigger an incident response (IR) activity. All too often our provided indicators contain information of varying quality including expired attribution, dubious origin, and incomplete details. So how many IOCs are needed before you can confidently declare an incident? After this session, the attendee will:
- Know how to quickly determine the value of an IOC,
- Understand when more information is needed (and from what source), and
- Make intelligent decisions on whether or not an incident should be declared.
Register to attend the webinar here: https://www.sans.org/webcasts/108100.